After running into other issues similar to this, I think the problem is that we were looking at a page before the move job had completed. In other words, the page was moved to the new location and could be displayed, but the job hadn't yet updated all the links on the page yet. This was happening mostly with large moves (20+ pages), though I was able to make it happen with some small ones like my example as well. Our XWiki instance runs on a virtual machine that is probably under-powered for moving large blocks of content in one go, so there can be a significant delay in those situations. I don't think I've seen this happen recently, but we haven't done as many moves like this now that our content has been arranged in its current form.
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